GRAND FORKS (KFGO-AM) -- It probably comes as no surprise, but there's little chance of spring flooding in the Red River and Devils Lake Basins.
The National Weather Service says the flood risk is well below historical values. The ground is fairly dry and snow-pack and snow moisture are low.
The long term forecast calls for near-normal temperatures and precipitation.
-Report below
Red River and Devils Lake Basin – 2015 Spring Flood Outlook Discussion Points 1/23/2015 prepared by NWS - Weather Forecast Office, Grand Forks ND NWS - North Central River Forecast Center, Chanhassen MN This outlook is for the U.S. portion of the Red River Basin, based on conditions as of Thursday, 1/22/15. The latest graphics, probabilities, and discussion are available at weather.gov/fgf. Next update is due out 2/19/15. Bottom Line up Top! - The threat for significant, impactful, snowmelt flooding is currently quite low, generally much less than historical risk for points north from Wahpeton, into Pembina. This markedly low conditional risk is largely due to low flow conditions on most rivers and streams, low soil moisture, and low snowpack moisture. - The second half of winter is expected to be run very near seasonal normals. The NWS/Climate Prediction Center expects the period, Feb-Mar-Apr, to have temperature and precipitation levels near long-term averages. Long Story Short: Winter is not yet over… and a heavy snowfall or spring rain are still possible. Status of Key Conditions: 1. Base Streamflow: Near normal. USGS analysis and streamgage reports indicate that the Red River and its North Dakota and Minnesota tributaries are ice covered and/or flowing near their long term normal levels. 2. Soil Moisture at Freeze-up: Below normal. The rain and snow (liquid) measured across the Basin from Oct 1st through Jan 18th have ranged from 1 to 2 inches, or nearly 2 to 3 inches below the long term normals. Soil moistures levels and fall season precipitation deficits rival levels last season in the 2011-12 fall/winter period, with soil moisture levels at freeze-up ranging from 20-50 percent of normal over most of the Basin. 3. Frost Depth: Near normal. A late December deep cold snap and an overall scant snowpack allowed for an initial deep frost plunge, with basin-wide frost depths ranging from 2.5 to 3 feet deep. River and lake ice reports are spotty at this point, but the few reports received indicate that 2-3 foot ice thicknesses are common on both lakes and rivers in northwest Minnesota and eastern North Dakota. 4. Winter Snowpack/SWE: Much below normal. So far, both winter Snowpack and Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) are running below to well below normal across most of the U.S. portion of the RRB. Portions of the basin south of Grand Forks have 2 inches or less of snowpack, with areas south of Fargo nearly snow free. 5. Winter/Spring Outlook: Near normal. As mentioned above, the most recent (Jan 15th) edition of the NWS/CPC 3 month outlook, for Feb-Mar-Apr, indicates we can expect to have temperature and precipitation levels running near our long-term climate averages.